Today on The Settlement Layer: Agentic commerce is moving from concept to production rails, as Visa and Stripe deploy real-world purchasing capabilities for autonomous software. In parallel, tax and capital control nets are widening across The Settlement Layer markets, directly hitting digital service margins in Kenya and cross-border forex flows in South Africa.
The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on Monday released 'The Mills Review,' a landmark report concluding that AI will be a defining force in retail financial services by 2030. The review highlights the emergence of 'agentic AI' and identifies programmable money—specifically stablecoins and tokenized deposits—as essential infrastructure for the instant, automated settlements that AI-driven services will require. While outlining opportunities for improved efficiency, it also warns of increased risks like fraud and proposes seven recommendations for regulatory adaptation, including scaling up the FCA's own AI operations.
Why it matters
This report from a major global regulator is a significant roadmap for the future of financial infrastructure. For a payment gateway, the FCA's explicit link between agentic AI and the need for programmable money like stablecoins is a powerful signal. It suggests that future-proofing payment rails will require capabilities beyond traditional bank transfers, moving towards instant, 24/7 settlement to support machine-speed commerce. This framework is likely to influence regulators in other jurisdictions, including Africa.
South Africa's National Treasury released a draft bill to integrate cryptocurrencies into its capital flow management system, demanding mandatory declarations for digital asset holdings above specific thresholds. The proposal, which grants border officials expanded enforcement powers, is already facing pushback from platforms like Luno. This enforcement push arrives in tandem with the SARS draft guidance we noted recently, which formally categorized crypto as an intangible asset for tax purposes.
Why it matters
This is a major regulatory development for South Africa's digital economy. The proposed capital controls extend beyond service providers to individual holders, signaling a much tighter grip on forex flows via digital assets. This directly impacts the viability of using crypto, including stablecoins, for cross-border settlement and merchant payments. For any payment gateway operating in ZAR, this is a critical rule-set to track, as it could create significant compliance and operational hurdles for repatriating funds through non-traditional channels.
South African 'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) providers including Payflex and PayJustNow are actively defending their business models against concerns from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) about rising household debt. In statements on Monday, the firms argued they practice responsible lending, derive revenue from merchant fees instead of consumer interest, and should be regulated proportionately, distinct from traditional credit products.
Why it matters
The outcome of this debate will determine the regulatory future of BNPL in South Africa, a key alternative payment method for ecommerce. If SARB imposes stricter credit regulations, it could increase compliance costs and friction for BNPL providers, potentially impacting their integration with payment gateways and availability to merchants. The industry's push for 'proportionate regulation' is a key battle to watch.
Ripple has acquired an equity stake in African fintech giant Flutterwave to integrate its RLUSD stablecoin and Ripple Payments infrastructure into Flutterwave's operations. Announced Tuesday, the partnership aims to make cross-border transactions across Africa faster and cheaper. The move follows a broader trend, with an S&P Global report this week highlighting stablecoins as a key technology targeting the $100 trillion global B2B payments market for use cases like supplier payments and treasury operations.
Why it matters
This partnership is a landmark event for crypto-as-rails in Africa. Having a player of Flutterwave's scale directly integrate a major stablecoin for payment flows provides a powerful validation and potential distribution channel. This will likely accelerate merchant and business adoption of stablecoin settlement, creating competitive pressure on payment gateways that rely solely on traditional correspondent banking. It signals that stablecoins are moving from a niche remittance tool to core B2B payment infrastructure.
Infrastructure providers are racing to capture the market created by the CBN's January 2027 payment data localization mandate we've been tracking. TelCables Nigeria just launched Clouds2Africa, a Naira-denominated cloud and AI service that accepts local payments via Paystack. Meanwhile, the state-owned Galaxy Backbone is aggressively pitching its data centers to banks and fintechs facing the looming domestic-storage deadline.
Why it matters
The CBN's mandate is creating a domestic market for financial-grade cloud infrastructure overnight. For a payment gateway, this is no longer a strategic choice but a compliance necessity. The emergence of local, Naira-priced offerings from players like TelCables and Galaxy Backbone provides concrete options for meeting the data sovereignty requirement, but also introduces new vendor selection and migration projects that need to be planned for immediately to avoid a last-minute scramble.
Following up on the SEC's recent ARIP sandbox admissions—now cited as nine firms, including Luno, rather than the initial seven—regulators are clarifying their long-term intent. Industry experts indicate the commission is actively prioritizing companies building asset tokenization and custody infrastructure over retail trading platforms, seeking to leverage blockchain rails to unlock structural liquidity for the Nigerian economy.
Why it matters
The SEC's focus on infrastructure over speculation is a positive signal for the long-term health of digital assets in Nigeria. By encouraging the development of tokenization and custody, regulators are building the foundational layers needed for crypto to function as a payment rail. This approach could create a more stable and compliant environment for businesses looking to use digital assets for settlement and cross-border payments.
Miami-based Global Settlement Network (GSN) has acquired Uganda's AKIBA International to launch a $5.5 billion project to build sovereign digital infrastructure in Uganda's Karamoja Special Economic Zone. The initiative aims to implement a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the digital Ugandan shilling, tied to tokenized real-world assets like agricultural and mining output, which will be used for trade settlement and payroll.
Why it matters
This project represents one of Africa's most ambitious attempts to link a CBDC directly to tokenized real-world assets for enterprise use. By focusing on a special economic zone, the project can pilot a non-dollar settlement system for trade in a controlled environment. Its success or failure will provide a key data point on the viability of using blockchain-based rails to bypass traditional correspondent banking for intra-African trade.
Adding to the recent digital payment tax pressures we've been tracking in Kenya, the Finance Act 2026 has broadened the definition of 'royalty' to cover software licenses, cloud services, and international scheme fees paid to Visa and Mastercard. Driven by a recent Supreme Court ruling, the shift slaps a 20% withholding tax on these payments when made to non-resident providers, severely raising the floor cost of digital infrastructure.
Why it matters
This is a direct and material cost increase for any payment gateway operating in Kenya. The 20% withholding tax on scheme fees and essential software services will immediately impact margins and pricing models. This regulatory shift necessitates a full review of your cost structure for Kenyan operations and will likely require renegotiating terms with both merchants and software vendors to accommodate the new tax burden.
The Bank of Ghana's Head of Fintech and Innovation, Elhanan Owureku Asare, is advocating for a unified fraud prevention system that spans across banks, fintechs, and mobile money operators. The call comes as Ghana's digital payment ecosystem sees rapid growth, but also a surge in fraud, with scammers increasingly using social engineering to trick users into divulging PINs and other sensitive information. Fraudulent mobile money investment schemes alone cost victims over GH¢3.4 million in the first half of 2026.
Why it matters
The call for a shared fraud utility in Ghana acknowledges that in an interconnected payment system, risk is also shared. A fraudster who successfully exploits one platform can use the proceeds on another. A unified system could enable real-time signal sharing to stop attacks, but also presents significant data privacy and competitive challenges. This highlights the growing maturity of African fraud prevention discussions, moving from individual company tools to ecosystem-level defense.
Ghanaian remittance and mobile money firm Zeepay is facing significant legal and regulatory challenges. The company is dealing with a collapsed Caribbean subsidiary, a multi-million dollar court judgment against its CEO personally, and a liquidation petition from a creditor. These issues reportedly stem from a 2023 forex violation fine from the Bank of Ghana and a license suspension in Barbados, highlighting governance and compliance failures during a period of rapid expansion.
Why it matters
Zeepay's situation is a stark cautionary tale about the operational risks of scaling a cross-border fintech in Africa. The entanglement of forex management, regulatory compliance across multiple jurisdictions, and corporate governance demonstrates how quickly things can unravel. For any payment gateway CEO, this underscores the critical importance of having ironclad treasury, legal, and compliance functions in place before and during aggressive geographic expansion.
Ethiopia's Customs Commission has introduced a directive to formalize small-scale cross-border trade with Kenya. The new rule allows licensed traders to exchange up to $1,000 worth of goods per month under simplified customs procedures. The goal is to bring informal trade into the formal economy, improve compliance, and combat contraband.
Why it matters
This is a practical step towards realizing the goals of the AfCFTA at a grassroots level. By formalizing previously informal trade corridors, it creates a new, measurable market for digital payments. This could provide an opportunity for payment gateways to serve a growing segment of small, cross-border merchants who will need compliant ways to pay and get paid as their business is brought into the formal financial system.
Building on the autonomous payment protocols we tracked Stripe testing with Cross River Bank, major networks are moving agentic commerce into production. Visa announced the successful European pilot of real commercial transactions executed by AI agents using its 'Agentic Ready' program and Payment Passkeys. Stripe, meanwhile, launched an 'Agentic Commerce Suite' in Germany, set to go live in late 2026.
Why it matters
The shift from human-driven checkout to autonomous AI-led transactions represents a fundamental change in ecommerce. This isn't theoretical; Visa and Stripe are building the production rails now. This has profound implications for payment gateways, requiring new forms of identity verification, fraud detection tailored to machine behavior, and authorization models that go beyond 3D Secure. The liability and dispute resolution frameworks for agent-initiated transactions are the next critical battleground.
AI Commerce Infrastructure Takes Shape Major payment networks like Visa and Stripe are moving beyond pilots to implement real-world frameworks for AI agents to conduct transactions. This includes specific product suites, pilot programs for commercial purchases, and the development of digital identity and authorization layers necessary for autonomous payments to scale.
Regulatory Frameworks Solidify Across Key African Markets Regulators in South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria are issuing concrete rules that will define the operating environment for digital finance. This includes proposed capital controls on crypto in South Africa, expanded withholding taxes on digital services in Kenya, and the technical implementation of data localization in Nigeria.
Stablecoins Gain Traction as B2B Settlement Rails Partnerships between firms like Ripple and Flutterwave, as well as Cedar Money and Noah, underscore a significant trend: using stablecoins to address friction in cross-border B2B payments. An S&P report further validates this, highlighting the multi-trillion dollar B2B market as a key target for stablecoin-based settlement infrastructure.
Nigeria's Data Localization Mandate Drives Infrastructure Build-Out In response to the Central Bank of Nigeria's mandate for all payment data to be stored locally by 2027, infrastructure providers are actively building and marketing domestic solutions. This regulatory push is creating a new market for local cloud and data center services tailored to the financial sector's compliance needs.
The Regulatory Challenge of Rapid Fintech Growth The legal and financial troubles facing Ghanaian fintech Zeepay serve as a cautionary tale about the operational risks of rapid, multi-jurisdictional expansion. The case highlights the critical importance of robust compliance, governance, and treasury management as fintechs scale across Africa's fragmented regulatory landscape.
What to Expect
2026-08-31—Deadline for public feedback on South Africa's (SARS) draft guidance on the taxation of crypto assets.
2027-01-01—Deadline for all payment system participants in Nigeria to store and manage transaction data locally, per CBN directive.
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