In this episode

• CPI Day: Consensus at 3.7% headline as Goldman, BofA push first cut into 2027 — April CPI prints at 8:30 ET with consensus at 3.7% headline (highest since Sep 2023) and 2.7% core. Cleveland Fed Nowcast at 3.56%; ING is above consensus at 4.0% headline on gasoline rebound. Goldman moved first Fed cut to Dec 2026/Mar 2027; BofA ruled out cuts for all of 2026 and pushed first cut to July 2027. Kalshi prices 47% probability of a hike before July 2027. Dollar sits at 14-year extreme short positioning, creating asymmetric squeeze risk on a hot print.
• Burry doubles down: 'The end is nigh' — SOXX 62% above 200-day, dispersion screaming late-cycle — Burry published a Substack post Monday calling the top, with Nasdaq 100 top-10 names up 784% YTD vs. 622% pre-March 2000. SOXX has rallied 244% from April 2025 lows ($148 → $509.77), with 58% of gains compressed into the last two months. Dispersion is the tell: Micron +1,000%, AMD +450%, Intel +200% YTD vs. NVDA only +140%. SOXX trades 62% above its 200-day MA — a level only exceeded twice (Jul 1995, Mar 2000), both before bubble collapses. Burry is positioned with Jan 2027 SOXX puts. JPMorgan's Matejka counters with 'buy the dips,' but acknowledges 'very narrow' breadth.
• monday.com (MNDY) gaps 22%+ on Q1 beat-and-raise — record op income, AI Work Platform inflection — MNDY reported Q1 adj. EPS of $1.15 (beat $0.93 by $0.22), revenue $351.3M (+24% YoY, beat by $12M), adj. op income beat by 28.9%, and raised FY26 guidance to $1.466-1.474B. Customers >$50k ARR grew 32% to 4,547; those >$500k ARR up 74% YoY. 110% NDR. FCF margin expanded to 29.3%. Stock gapped to $87.28, fourth consecutive quarter of beats. Caveat: still down 51.2% YTD, so overhead resistance is real.
• Akamai (AKAM) +26% on $1.8B seven-year Anthropic deal — edge compute validated as hyperscaler alternative — AKAM surged 26% on a $1.8B, seven-year cloud infrastructure deal with Anthropic, with $700-800M CapEx deployment over the next 12 months. Q1 also beat with 6% YoY revenue growth and a 40% jump in cloud infra services. Q4 2026 recognition expected at $20-25M, with larger 2027 contribution. The deal validates Akamai's distributed edge architecture for AI inference workloads — a narrative reset from years of underperformance vs. AWS/Azure.
• Babcock & Wilcox (BW) +23% on $2.4B Applied Digital AI data center power deal — BW jumped 23% on Q1 revenue +44% YoY to $214.4M and adj. EBITDA +296%, anchored by a $2.4B design-build contract to supply 1.2 GW of power generation (four 300-MW systems) for Applied Digital's AI data centers. Backlog now $2.7B with $14B+ pipeline. Raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to $80-100M. Stock up 4,400% from lows, but the contract substance and pipeline depth justify the re-rating.
• Innodata (INOD) +25% on Q1 blowout — $51M Big Tech contract, FY guide raised to 40%+ — INOD surged 25% on May 12 following May 7 earnings: Q1 revenue $90.1M (+54% YoY), adj. EBITDA $25.0M (139% above guidance), net income $14.9M ($0.42 EPS). Announced a major unnamed Big Tech customer expected to generate ~$51M in 2026 revenue — the company's second-largest client. FY26 guidance raised from 35%+ to 40%+. Gross margin 47%. Stock is now up 300%+ YTD with extension already in two legs (May 7 double, May 12 +25%).
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) doubles in two sessions — record $5.6B backlog, hyperscaler MSAs signed — FLNC rallied ~100% across May 8-11 sessions on Q2 fiscal results: revenue $465M (+8% YoY), adj. gross margin 11.1%, record $5.6B backlog. Signed master supply agreements with two hyperscalers, doubled YTD orders to ~$2B, and 12 GW data-center storage pipeline. HSBC and Roth Capital upgraded on improving profitability and order momentum.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) breaks out 34% to 52-week high on Q1 beat — but insiders dumped $272M into the move — RKLB rallied 34.22% Friday to a new 52-week high of $105.47 on massive 79.93M-share volume (+239% above average). Q1 revenue $200.35M (+63.4% YoY, beat by $11M) with raised Q2 guidance. Needham raised PT $95 → $120. Symmetrical triangle breakout on multiple confluences (Neutron maiden flight, NSSL Phase 3 eligibility, record $2.2B backlog). But: ~4.3M shares (~$272M) of insider selling over 90 days into the run, and a -$45M GAAP net loss.
• Coatue rotates to 58% Semis+Infra; AMD gets Goldman Buy on agentic AI thesis — FundaAI's weekly fund-tracking report shows Coatue increased Semis+Infra exposure to 58% YTD (from 35% at year start), reducing Software/Internet allocations. The reallocation drove memory/CPU outperformance (MU, SNDK, INTC, AMD) over optics (LITE, COHR). Concurrently, Goldman upgraded AMD to Buy with $450 PT (from $240), citing agentic AI driving CPU + GPU demand, with 2027-2028 EPS estimates running ~20% above consensus. Goldman still prefers NVDA and AVGO as top picks but flags AMD as relative entry.
• AMAT into Thursday: priced for perfection at $435 vs. avg PT $375.90 — Applied Materials reports Q2 on May 14 with Street at $2.68 EPS / $7.68B revenue. Estimates climbed 17.5% over the past 90 days but have been flat for 30 days — consensus has settled. Stock is up 181% over 52 weeks and trades near $435 vs. average analyst PT of $375.90 (implying 13% downside). Cantor raised PT to $550, but the broader desk consensus is more cautious. Wall Street projects 20%+ growth for CY26 with EPS of $12.05.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) +8.7% on Q2 beat — CEO confirms hyperscaler data center shipments in 2026 — QCOM gapped 8.8% premarket on fiscal Q2 EPS $2.65 (beat $2.56), revenue $10.60B, and — critically — CEO confirmation that hyperscaler data center chip shipments begin in calendar 2026. Automotive revenue at record $1.33B (+38% YoY). $20B buyback authorization + dividend raise to $0.92. Daiwa to Outperform, Tigress $280, Benchmark $225, Roth initiate Buy. June 24 Investor Day will deliver data center details.
• ES holds 7,420 POC with $142B gamma floor as Iran deal collapses, crude jumps 4.6% — Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal Sunday; Tehran vowed to 'never bow,' and drone attacks resumed. WTI surged 4.6% to $99-100, Brent to $104-106. Despite the shock, ES futures only modestly lower (-0.1 to -0.2%) thanks to a $142.21B GEX book providing mechanical support at 7,395, with gamma flip at 7,250 (148-point buffer). Friday saw +$36.9B net call premium as desks re-entered post-Thursday de-risking. ES printed new highs at 7,454.75 on the May 12 morning session. VIX-price divergence is the warning.
• UBS downgrades Dell to Neutral despite raising PT to $243 — '$17 2027 EPS already priced in' — UBS downgraded DELL to Neutral from Buy on May 11, raising PT $167 → $243 but arguing the 170% rally has left no upside. UBS calculates the market is pricing 2027 EPS at ~$17 vs. their $12.85 forecast. Even if Dell captures $20B in incremental AI server revenue from competitor disruption, UBS pegs the EPS uplift at only ~$1.50 (12% above FY27 estimates), with the benefit not materializing until CY2027 due to component lead times.
• Plug Power (PLUG) +13% on Q1 revenue beat — but cash burn accelerated to $150M — PLUG reported Q1 revenue $163.5M (+22% YoY, beat by ~17%), with adj. EPS loss of -$0.08 vs. -$0.10 expected. Gross margin improved 42 points YoY (from -55% to -13%). Stock rallied 12.8% Monday + 6.3% premarket Tuesday. Short interest at 25% of float (vs. Russell 8% avg) drove early covering. But Q1 cash burn accelerated to $150M (vs. $105.6M YoY), and the company is relying on $275M in asset monetization including a $142M Stream Data Centers sale due June.

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